Quebra acentuada do preço do ouro e as dívidas soberanas

Extractos de um relatório agora publicado pelo jornal indiano online The Art of Jewellery sobre a súbita quebra do preço do ouro nos mercados internacionais. Depois de Chipre ter anunciado a intenção, se Portugal e outros países no centro da crise das dívidas soberanas venderem parte das suas reservas em ouro, dar-se-á um crash, prevêem os analistas.

Gold prices falling to a two-year low of US$1,384 an ounce (a reduction by Rs 1,330 per 10 gram in Mumbai) has triggered a mad rush of consumers to retail showrooms, during the auspicious pre-Akshaya Tritiya and wedding seasons. It has also led to a crash of jewellery stocks in India with shares of leading jewellers such as Gitanjali Gems, Shree Ganesh Jewellers, Titan Industries, Thangamayil Jewellers, etc dipping anywhere between two and five per cent. Besides, almost all the gold exchange traded funds(ETFs) have registered a fall between seven to ten per cent. The spotlight has also turned to gold loan companies whose shares have already fallen sharply.

Gold prices in India were down sharply both in the spot and futures market with standard gold falling by Rs 1,330 per 10 gram. At last count, gold price in Mumbai's Zaveri Bazar was Rs 26,150 per 10 gram.

Why have the prices of gold tumbled? Signs of recovery in the US coupled with fears that Cyprus might sell its 13.9 tonne gold reserves to repay its debt has triggered this downtrend. Also there is growing anxiety that other European nations such as Italy with its 2512 tonnes of gold reserves Spain (281.6 tonnes), Portugal (382 tonnes), Greece (112 tonnes) and Ireland (6 tonnes) may also start selling. This could lead to a big crash in the global markets.

How have the falling gold prices affected the Indian gems and jewellery industry? While the unorganized sector jewellers who were largely unhedgedon commodity exchanges incurred losses both on stock and physical, the corporate and chain store retailers were optimistic.Retailers across the country reported brisk business as customers rushed to cash in on the reduced rates. Hyderabad, Bangalore, Vishakapatnam, Madurai, Delhi, Mumbai and many other cities witnessed frenetic sales of jewellery.