Richemont à procura de novos investimentos?

Interessante análise do Richemont Group (líder mundial no sector de Alta Relojoaria), feita por Alessandro Pasetti e Jamie Miyazaki na edição de hoje do The Wall Street Journal, onde se especula sobre a possível tomada de posição no capital da Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. e da Salvatore Ferragamo:

The luxury goods industry still looks broadly cheap, assuming Asian demand will help it regain the multiples it sported back in the halcyon days of 2001-2007, and this suggests it’s time for a strategic move by cash-rich Compagnie Financiere Richemont.

What about considering minority stakes in fashion houses Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. andSalvatore Ferragamo as possible alternatives to the names that have already cropped up on the rumor list?

So far, Richemont has been cited as looking at Germany’s Rodenstock or Italy’s Prada S.p.A., and even a tie up with France’s LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, but this chatter has elicited denials or a no-comment response from the Swiss-South African conglomerate.

Bolt-on acquisitions to beef up Richemont’s underweight presence in apparel would certainly help it to diversify from its core, and more cyclical, ‘hard luxury’ business of watches and jewelry.

And it isn’t short of capital to play with. As at September 2009, it had a net cash position of EUR902 million that could be put to work, and there are plenty of privately owned luxury apparel brands with $1 billion-plus in revenue that could be used to bulk up the company’s ‘soft luxury’ presence.

A logical alternative to Prada, which has denied reports about selling a stake, would be Ferragamo, which has been mulling an IPO for a couple of years. The Italian company offers an opportunity for diversification–with a portfolio ranging from footwear and clothes to perfumes and accessories it could complement Richemont’s strengths.

Across the Atlantic, Ralph Lauren could also make an interesting fit. The two companies already have commercial ties having operated a watch and jewelery joint venture since 2007, and, given minimal product or geographic overlap, further cooperation would help them expand in markets where they lack meaningful presence.

Ralph Lauren generates the vast majority of its revenues in North America, a soft spot for Richemont. For the twelve months ending March 2009, the U.S. company generated 72%, or $3.6 billion, of its net revenue in the U.S. and Canada.

Richemont, on the other hand, chalked up just 15.5%, or EUR246 million, of total sales in the quarter ended December 2009 in the Americas. The U.S., despite the headlines of heady Chinese growth, remains the world’s largest luxury goods market by revenue.

Indeed, Ralph Lauren has a long-term target of generating a third of its revenues from the Asia-Pacific region, and a tie up with the Swiss-based company could accelerate its expansion plan in the region.

Last financial year, Japan was the only substantial revenue contributor from the region, responsible for 7.8% of Ralph Lauren’s net revenue. The impact of China, the industry’s oft-touted growth engine, on the company’s top line was negligible. By contrast, 31% of Richemont’s sales in the last quarter of 2009 were from Asia-Pacific ex-Japan; fold in Japan and the company pulls in 43% of revenue from Asia.

A capital tie-up or a merger would enable Ralph Lauren to tap into Richemont’s established presence in the region. That said, while making full blown acquisitions for large fashion houses is not unheard of, these tend to occur when the brand is in crisis, as shown by LVMH’s 2000 acquisition of Donna Karan. Ralph Lauren and Ferragamo are not in this position, so negotiating a minority stake sale with the founding families–who are controlling shareholders–while looking to make them equity affiliates is probably more feasible.

Richemont should also consider trimming some non-core brands to rationalize its portfolio, although it probably wouldn’t raise much cash. The company has been tinkering with some of its apparel, leather and accessories brands such as Dunhill and Chloe by rebranding and overhauling their design teams, but efforts have yet to yield big payoffs on revenues and earnings.